There have been people saying that the Q1 13 is doom to be low in Semicon equipment demand and the norm will be going to Q2 and Q3 to be ramping up for much spot demand, and start to fall in Q4 2013.
China is now the most influential economic system that has overpasses USA in the recent 5 years, as US economy is now someone named as Paper Tiger as if they could not raise the limit of the debt to 14 Trillion, before March, the whole US market will going a dark period. That is what Obama main Do-list on his desk.
Fore the past 3 decades, China has a amazing average GPD growth of average 10-30%, till the recent 8 year , it was slow down to 6-10% an average The tremendous grown no long be seen anymore.
However Steven green * has spotted that the commodity price, food price is increasing n Beijing and major city of China China
And had been using economy executions to boost the state and private enterprises and investment,
That is a driver for the World Economy, need to watch out.
SIGMA; Samsung, Intel, Google, Microsoft and Apple.
Who has tied up with these Will gain business opportunity and making higher profit, away from this will deems to be in low economic growth.
The world has been conformed into a few less players before, more to become monopoly states as 10 years ago, as the Equipment market where there were 20 major equipment suppliers before now it has been either by means of M & A, or dissolved to less than 5 major players.
The state is not as healthy as before as more to be the winning side will get all 80% of pie and a bit less competitive side will get 20% or the order, so the WINNER takes it all
Apple
There is disappointment on Iphone5, which is just 1 cm longer and that is iPhone4., so the Fans of Steve Jobs, they do not feel great to use Apple anymore as there is no more gadget stuff anymore to talk with electronic freaks.
Apple OS ties up wit iTunes will block a lot of people coming to the world of iPhone, Android is now dominant for the SW and Samsung is being a winner in terms of popularity and market share.
Someone like me said Apple will falls after Steve Job, a bit too early to say so, but lest watch out for a couple more years.
The fall so a great company is there is no new technology… Apple has announced to have low cost version of iPhone, I can say cheap iPhone for the third world, with lower entry level. Plastic case and bigger display to conquer Samsung Galaxy SIII or Note II!?
Well, to the Semiconductor houses or Semiconductor equipment supplier that is a great news the this is a bigger volume for more IC Chip demand, OSAT, IDM and Fabless would be benefit by Apple for a couple of years more.
We believe the demand will rise shortly when Apple start the Low cost iPhone program.
Power QFN
More and more demand for QFN as there is a huge demand for this no matter that is for Smart phone, note Book, LED drivers…etc the demand will rise, package will turn to me more on FC for package shrinkage. Better technology for improving the heat dissipation, Clip will be the trend.
Asian Investment Threat
Who will be the be the investment centre in coming 5-10 years
The Earthquake 11 March 2011 stops all future plan for most overseas firm to select Tokyo as the business HQ, one the other hand, cost is just too high.
The King is 87 years old and uncertainty who will be the one taking care the Monarch, the Yingluk Government claimed to be lack of long term investment attraction to the foreign investor..
The 2011 Q4 Flood does have some black shadow to the new Investors.
The Beginning of the week had serious Flood, 140KM of Road and the Commercial Center of Jakarta was submerged in Water.
This is another question to the new investment
There is infrastructure and language barrier o new investment, some big foreign factory is a large factory with some of the oldest MC running, believe they can not make money too!
China Wages rise everyday! And there is difficulties to hire the right people now in
Philippine may be one of the vest choices for foreign investment
Automotive is growing
There is demand for car replacement for better mileage, less emission, and time for changing new car. The Demand is high
There are hundred of sensors in a car and 3 hundred LED plus LED drivers, the demand for IC is high, but as Automotive is merely 5% of total semicon and will rise to 8% in the year 2013/4.
Forecast 2014
Windows 8 does not create much demand to PC makers, and Surface is not anything but just a firecracker in air!
We think that there is be spot demand for equipment in Q2 and then End Q3 depending on the Apple New Phone.
As a Summary, the IC demand of 2013 will be started in Q2 and ended by Mid Q3, there is no more Major Demand on Q4. Forecast that there will be 5-8 growth in terms of Revenue as comparing with 2012.
HK Snob
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