International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts worldwide semiconductor revenues will grow 9% year over year in 2011 and will achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for the 2010-2015 forecast period. This follows the strong recovery in 2010, which produced growth of 23% over 2009 according to the latest version of IDC's Semiconductor Application Forecaster (SAF). The Computing industry segment represents about 40% of all semiconductor revenues and will show year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates of 7% and 6%, respectively, after registering revenues of $113 billion in 2010. The launch of Sandybridge and Fusion APU in 2011, by Intel and AMD respectively, should help to accelerate the PC replacement cycle and drive semiconductor demand into 2012.
While robust Smartphone sales drove semiconductor revenues for the Communications industry segment to a record $80 billion in 2010, there is continued pricing pressure on cellular baseband and connectivity chipsets, especially in the low end of the market in China. Long-term volume growth, however, remains robust as demand for these chipsets extends beyond smart phones. IDC also sees solid long-term telecom spending given the continued growth of IP traffic, the growth of smart devices on the network, and the spending levels of service providers. IDC forecasts year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates of 9% and 5%, respectively, for the Communications industry segment. High growth in semiconductor revenues from media tablets, e-readers, and LED/LCD TV sets is helping to balance flat or decreased revenue growth from traditional consumer devices, such as DVD players and game consoles, for the years 2011-2015. As a result, the Consumer industry segment will see year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015) growth rates of 10% and 5%, respectively.
The Automotive and Industrial segments are expected to be long-term growth drivers for semiconductor revenues. Together, these segments are forecasted to log 13% and 10% growth rates respectively for year-over-year (2011) and CAGR (2010-2015), with growth driven by increased automobile sales worldwide and increased semiconductor consumption in applications such as infotainment, safety and diagnostic systems, engine control, energy/battery management, M2M, smart grid, LED lighting, and factory automation.
Among semiconductor devices, revenues for microprocessors, microcontrollers, ASSPs, and analog devices are expected to show a CAGR (2010-2015) of 8-9%, but, both Flash and DRAM revenues, which were impressive in 2010 ($63 billion), will decline with a combined CAGR (2010-2015) of 0-1%.
Regionally, as expected, Asia/Pacific continues to grow its share of semiconductor revenues, reaching over 43% in 2015.
"Near term, the semiconductor market should hit bottom by the second quarter of next year and begin a growth cycle that will take us into the second half of 2012," said Mario Morales, vice president, Semiconductor research at IDC. "Overall, IDC continues to reaffirm the views expressed in its qualitative semiconductor market update published in October 2010. But, IDC also cautions that macroeconomic problems, such as persistent high unemployment with the associated low consumer sentiment in the U.S., the ongoing Euro crisis, and a commodity-driven asset bubble in BRIC countries, could influence semiconductor market negatively in 2011," said Mali Venkatesan, research manager, Semiconductors at IDC, who led the study and compiled the SAF data. IDC's Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecaster database serves as the basis for all IDC semiconductor supply-side documents, including market forecasts and consulting projects. This database contains revenue data collected from the top 100 semiconductor companies for 2006-2009 and market history and forecasts for 2006-2015. Revenue for over twelve semiconductor device areas, four geographic regions, six end-application vertical markets, and over 90 end-device applications are also included in the database. My personal comment on the IC market is steady growing 2011-2015, I can’t tell how much exactly, as I do not have the vast data as IDC has, I trust on my understanding on the consumers market and understanding buying behavior of general consumers. we expect to see more new products is launching onto these consumer electronics markets, LED TV, Blue Ray players, Mini Audio, Mp3, Tablet, Apple Product, Games will turn out their best gadget in features and launching of new models, Apple is the driver for new revolution product that trigger a hot buying, No one expects to wait for the new products at doors of shops, this is only apple. Believe more genius people will create new products for us, A bit worry is who will be the next successor to steer the Apple into another high growth, Korean firm like Samsung surpasses Japan leading companies in Revenue and dominating the market. The Japanese firms need to steer the company driving more new product and to create certain new product that we never have, or they will lose the market share to The Koreans.
China is the world factory, and the economy giant, the world no.1 oil consumption country, the world largest work force, and at same time the largest consumers for Electroncs, automobiles, airplane, now China has 175 airport and building 10-15 airports a year. However there is not even one world Brand from China. We have to think why!? We believe China is moving into these area for create their OWN brands. M&A other big shot company may or may not work out as a way to create their own brand name, we need talented industrialist revolutionist , design expertise to create one of their Own brand name… Watch and see. There will be… Source ref, IDC FRAMINGHAM, Mass., December 9, 2010
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